Masonry Magazine July 1973 Page. 26
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OURY ENGINEERING CO. A Division of Harsco Corporation P.O. Box 1145, Marion, Ohio 43302 Phone: 614/389-4661
Photo illustrative only. Product must be used in conformity with sale practices and applicable codes and regulations. 26
Construction Forecast Raised to $95.5 Billion
The 1973 F. W. Dodge Construction Outlook, the construction market forecast initially issued last October, has been revised upward by more than $3 billion to $95.5, McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company announced today. The two circumstances that account for most of this adjustment are housing construction costs and business construction recovery.
The company, an authority on the construction market, produces Dodge Reports on construction activity and Sweet's Catalog Files of building product information.
"The increase in our forecast is due to inflation more than anything else," George A. Christie, vice president and chief economist of the company's F. W. Dodge Division, said. "Basically, the construction market still shows the same situation we've been anticipating all along-a cyclical trade-off between housing coming down and industrial and commercial construction going up. The main difference since the beginning of the year is that this is all happening at a higher level of cost."
As a result of inflation, building costs rose sharply in the first half of 1973, and the higher level is now frozen into the second half as well, Christie said.
"One conspicuous consequence are the prices of lumber and plywood, which have ballooned the cost of housing to the extent that even though we're still sticking with our earlier estimate of 2.1 million dwelling units for 1973, they'll wind up costing well over a billion dollars more than we originally estimated," he explained.
The second circumstance that helps account for most of the upward adjustment is what Christie described as the "amazing strength" of the business recovery during the first half of 1973.
"Even though we had originally forecast a large gain in business-related construction this year, experience to date shows that contracting for stores, warehouses, offices and factories is outpacing our most optimistic expectation," he said. "In making this midyear adjustment, which adds nearly a billion dollars to the combined total of business construction, we are nevertheless anticipating a somewhat slower contracting during the second half."
Christie said he saw no compelling reason to raise the previous estimate for 1973 nonbuilding construction, since Federal budget austerity and the ecology issue still have the heavy construction market in a straightjacket.
"However, there are two offsetting adjustments in nonbuilding categories that bear mention," he added. "The potential for sewer and water facilities construction has improved with the prospective release of billions of impounded Federal funds. But contracting for electrical generating plants has failed to rebound as expected from last year's low level, and it looks as though the resolution of the energy-ecology hassle is still a long way off."
The case for a break in the two-and-a-half-year construction boom is still as strong now as it was last fall despite this year's early surge, Christie said.
"The austerity economics and restrictive policies of 1973, consistent with an overheating economy, haven't fully caught up with the construction business yet, and eventually they must," he explained.
Books...
"Handbook of Adhesive Bonding" edited by Charles V. Cagle; 754 pages; 340 illustrations; 6 x 9; $27.50. McGraw-Hill, 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10020. Publication date: July, 1973.
A practical reference which presents proven methods for solving virtually any problem in the field, this new handbook gives full information on proper surface preparation and offers guidance on choosing the right adhesive for a specific job.
This work additionally presents special sections on the use of adhesives in various industries other than construction, and gives a concise survey of bonding with polyesters and ultra-high temperature adhesive materials.
The late Charles V. Cagle was a consultant in the adhesives field and manager of the adhesives division for a large plastics corporation in Chicago.
People with annual incomes of $100,000 averaged $13,553 in gifts to churches and other philanthropies, says the American Association for Fund Raising Counsel. That's 7.2% of their adjusted gross income. The average for all Americans was 2.9%. masonry July, 1973